106 Bree's Gone [12/26/06]

[Kimmy]

This video shows several out of character behaviors for Bree-
1. she drives, something we know she doesn't do well
2. she steals money (or borrows) without leaving a note. Very un-Bree like, no matter the dire circumstances. Her parents have instilled a morality that has governed her other actions, (taking responsiblility for the prank calls, for instance).. Theft is not her ususal fallback position. She and Daniel raided garbage rather than stealing food.
3. she left the house suddenly, after stating that she missed Daniel and wanted him at Jonas' house in several videos. He shows up and she takes off. She didn't say goodbye, at least in an obvious way. Daniel sounded and looked worried and Jonas was clearly distraught.

So we have clues that her behavior is "off". Searching her videos may provide clues, but her actions are suspicious. Was she taking off to see her father so abruptly to avoid detection or was her disappearence more sinister?

sorry if i repeated anyone else, i have to type quickly to avoid my family's scrutiny. they think it's amusing but that i spend far too much time on this website!

[joygasm]

LMAO! The tags on youtube:

Tags: LG15 lonelygirl15 daniel danielbeast jonas jonastko bree gone christmas cash car money what the hell

[SharpI]

Okay. Here are the top possibilities as I see them:

1) Everything is as it seems. Bree did take the car, credit card and money, and is going to see her dad. She needs the credit card and money because she's not sure exactly when her dad might show. She didn't tell Jonas or Daniel because she was afraid they would stop her, or demand to come with her, and thus she would endanger them if this is a trap. She plans to call or vid shortly, to assure them she's all right. MY ESTIMATE OF THE CHANCE THIS IS CORRECT: 50%

2) Bree took the car, to go meet her dad. That rendezvous was supposed to happen today. She did not take the credit card or the money; Jonas is lying about them being missing. Daniel is not in on it. MY ESTIMATE OF THE CHANCE THIS IS CORRECT: 10%

3) Bree is not actually gone. Jonas and Daniel are making it seem like she is, to throw the Order off. Under the guise of searching for her, Daniel and Jonas will transport her in secret to the rendezvous with her father. MY ESTIMATE OF THE CHANCE THIS IS CORRECT: 0%

4) Bree left because of information Daniel gave her - information he got from Tachyon about Jonas. Jonas isn't with the Order, but he is, um, unstable, and so Bree got away from him as soon as possible. MY ESTIMATE OF THE CHANCE THIS IS CORRECT: 0%

5) The Order trailed Daniel to Jonas' house, and took Bree away in the night. They took the car, credit card and money to make it seem like she took off on her own. MY ESTIMATE OF THE CHANCE THIS IS CORRECT: 0%

6) Jonas gave Bree his car, credit card and money, so that she could go meet her dad. They didn't tell Daniel, because he would have insisted on going, and Bree is worried that he will come to harm if the meeting with her dad is a trap by the Order. MY ESTIMATE OF THE CHANCE THIS IS CORRECT: 30%

7) Jonas isn't working for the Order, but he is a bad guy, and he's working his own angle on all this. To get Bree out from under Daniel's protection, he had friends take Bree away, and take his car also. Jonas will sell them both out as soon as he can figure out a safe way to do so. MY ESTIMATE OF THE CHANCE THIS IS CORRECT: 0%

Bree is feeling badly that she got gifts for Christmas but didn't give any, so she just borrowed the car (and credit card, and money) for a little trip to the mall to get Boxing Day gifts for the boys. She figured she could get it all done before the boys woke. She'll be back any minute. MY ESTIMATE OF THE CHANCE THIS IS CORRECT: 0%

9) None of this will ever really be adequately explained. MY ESTIMATE OF THE CHANCE THIS IS CORRECT: 10%

[Eekhoorn]

I'm really sorry if this allready had been said, i only got to page 6 and have to go study in a minute. But what i find really strange, is that jonas didn't go wake daniel up when he saw Bree was gone. My reaction would be, go see if she has gone alone, is Daniel still here? Then if he's still there, wake him up and ask if he knows. I would'nt go post a video online telling about how bree has left and hurt him, if i hadn't talked to Daniel first.
THis is why i think Jonas does know where Bree has gone to, or she hasn't left at all.

[annie]

He also just woke up, and I know you can't get much of a reaction out of me when I wake up.

LOL Good point. Once it really hits him that she left, he might charge into the adrenalin panic we know and love from when he followed her to watch teh "ceremony".

[livelongandprosper77]

Wow what theories i was at about page 6 a few hours back and now it is 13! I read through each page and soaked in a lot of info and made some conclusions:

1) Kenny dang dude you need to rest your hands your fingers are smoking! Look how many posts you have made!

2) All of the theories mentioned have merit except for a few which i believe SharpI as well as Kenny have stated quite nicely.

3) Bree can drive well enough to get where she needs to go.

4) Jonas did not know about her plan to leave and neither did Daniel. Jonas has barely gotten anything out of Bree during her entire stay and i do not see her trusting him to that extent. Daniel did indeed just arrive and hasn't had time to discuss the situation with Bree and plus he did just wake up when he discovered her missing . That seems to maybe explain his odd behavior well i think. However, Daniel does know more about certain things then we do from info he has collected by going back home.

5) She did leave on her own free will and no evidence was presented to show her being kidnapped. I do believe that she may be kidnapped in an attempt to meet her father, but maybe she is smarter than we think and may use the credit card she stole to purchase something near where she will meet her father. That way Jonas and Daniel have a chance of being able to find her from him calling up his credit card company and notifying them of the theft. Sort of a backup plan to help them rescue her if needed.

6) I believe the CUSOON was for indeed for her dad who must have some access to her vids how exactly i am not sure. She would not need to make a CUSOON message for Jonas and Daniel she could have just left a note which she didn't but she points in no way to it being for them. Her whole "Mystery Movie" vid centered so much around her father it has to be for him.

7) I think that most of the analyzing we do of vids is great but to the point of making us not able to see what is smack dab, right in front of our own faces. Most of what we have seen is probably exactly what it appears to be and we are blowing things out of proportion. to quote Bree we "tend to have an overactive imagination"

Well that is my 2 cents have at it and i appreciate the ideas provided very nice work everyone.

[aideen]

The LGPEDIA suggests we won't see a vid from Bree for a week or so and that she won't film the meeting with her father. But Jonas and Dan might. They could find her and follow her so that if the meeting turns nasty they can't jump in and do their knight in shining armour and little hot sidekick thing

[nobackspacebutton]

Alright. This is what I've discerned..

1) Daniel knew she was leaving. They didn't tell Jonas because obviously they don't think they can trust him yet. Why else would Daniel be so calm?

2) Like said above, Bree can drive good enough to get to where she needs to go. Before she couldn't? O.oa

3) How far could she be going? She is meeting with her dad on the 30th...thats four days away.

[Languorous Lass]

SharpI, I like your neat summary of theories, and your attempt to calculate the likelihood of each. I disagree with you, though, about which theories are the most likely. And you left out a theory that I think is highly probable: that Jonas is with the Order, and cooperated with them to set Bree (and Daniel) up for Bree to be kidnapped. I think the likelihood of that theory being correct is 30%.

I agree with you both about your #1 theory being the most likely, and your description of it. The only statement I'd quibble with is "Everything is as it seems." Nothing is as it seems in LG15. I also differ with your calculation of its likelihood: I'd put it at 40% -- more likely than the kidnapping theory, but not that much more likely.

My estimates of the likelihood of your other theories:

2): 0%

3): 0%

4): 0% for the theory as you describe it, but this theory contains some good ideas -- mostly that Bree left because of info Daniel gave her from Tachyon. I don't agree that the reason she left is because Jonas is unstable, but not with the Order; I think any reason that came from Tachyon is related to the Order. My addition to this theory is that Bree recognized the significance of the Tachyon info (whatever it is), but Daniel did not, and that's why she didn't tell him she was leaving: she realized that he would be in danger if he came along, and the fact that he didn't realize the significance of the clue is what told her he wasn't in danger yet. Likelihood that this theory is correct: 10%.

5): 10%

6): Sorry, dude -- 0%.

7): Interesting theory. 5%.

: 0%, but fun.

9): 95%.

Other points people have raised are also good ones. livelongandprosper, I think your #6 point is especially insightful.

I do think that Daniel was concerned, although he wasn't beside himself. I think that by this point, he knows that the only thing that's predictable about Bree is that she'll be unpredictable. She's likely to do just about anything. That's why he's not freaking the way he would have been a few months ago: he knows that he can look at her vids for clues. (Just like we can.)

[annie]

My estimates of the likelihood of your other theories:

2): 0%

3): 0%

4): 0% for the theory as you describe it, but this theory contains some good ideas -- mostly that Bree left because of info Daniel gave her from Tachyon. I don't agree that the reason she left is because Jonas is unstable, but not with the Order; I think any reason that came from Tachyon is related to the Order. My addition to this theory is that Bree recognized the significance of the Tachyon info (whatever it is), but Daniel did not, and that's why she didn't tell him she was leaving: she realized that he would be in danger if he came along, and the fact that he didn't realize the significance of the clue is what told her he wasn't in danger yet. Likelihood that this theory is correct: 10%.

5): 10%

6): Sorry, dude -- 0%.

7): Interesting theory. 5%.

: 0%, but fun.

9): 95%.

How do you get your stats, Langorous Lass? I think what you've posted is really interesting ~ give me a base point and I'll run them in SPSS 14.0 and have a regression analysis to post!

[Languorous Lass]

Made 'em up, Annie. Totally made 'em up.

[nobackspacebutton]

Made 'em up, Annie. Totally made 'em up.

lol nah you didnt make them up!

its from a college poll conducted in 2003 for what is going to happen in LG15 in the year 2006.

[kalika]

How do you get your stats, Langorous Lass? I think what you've posted is really interesting ~ give me a base point and I'll run them in SPSS 14.0 and have a regression analysis to post!

OT, but...another stat student on board???? I did NOT think to see SPSS on the lonelygirl forum (and 14.0 is full of so many bugs!!!! I hate it, i wish I could go back to 13!)

[solrac_krad]

Moat o the theories everybody imagines are blown out of proportion, why dont we stick to wut we knwo, most ppl reads too much into the videos, remember they must be kinda simple, not everyone who watches the videos spends alot of time in forums and trying to sulve puzzles, they just watch them.
What are the most probable thing(s) to happen: Bre is gonna meet with her dad, the cusoon coded message is bound to be found by daniel after checking the vids.

[nobackspacebutton]

Moat o the theories everybody imagines are blown out of proportion, why dont we stick to wut we knwo, most ppl reads too much into the videos, remember they must be kinda simple, not everyone who watches the videos spends alot of time in forums and trying to sulve puzzles, they just watch them.
What are the most probable thing(s) to happen: Bre is gonna meet with her dad, the cusoon coded message is bound to be found by daniel after checking the vids.

Yeah, we all just love to sit here and speculate....we all make about 1000 new theories a week over who is really who and what means what...but as Sad Panda said in the Op forums, we really do need to stick to the facts before we get too out of control. =)