Languorous Lass wrote:SharpI, I like your neat summary of theories, and your attempt to calculate the likelihood of each. I disagree with you, though, about which theories are the most likely. And you left out a theory that I think is highly probable: that Jonas is with the Order, and cooperated with them to set Bree (and Daniel) up for Bree to be kidnapped. I think the likelihood of that theory being correct is 30%.
Good points, LL and everyone. At the risk of vexating those who get vexated when we WAY-over-anally-analyze every little thing, here are the revised theories:
1) Bree did take the car, credit card and money, and is going to see her dad. She didn't tell Jonas or Daniel because she was afraid they would stop her or demand to come with her, and thus she would endanger them if this is a trap. NEW ESTIMATE OF THE CHANCE THIS IS CORRECT: 40%
2) Bree took the car, to go meet her dad. She did not take the credit card or the money; Jonas is lying about them being missing. NEW ESTIMATE OF THE CHANCE THIS IS CORRECT: 10%
3) Bree is not actually gone. Jonas and Daniel are making it seem like she is, to throw the Order off. Pretending to search for her, Daniel and Jonas will transport her in secret to see her father. NEW ESTIMATE OF THE CHANCE THIS IS CORRECT: 0%
4) Bree left because of information Daniel gave her - information he got from Tachyon about Jonas. Jonas is with the Order, but he is, um, unstable, and so Bree got away from him as soon as possible. NEW ESTIMATE OF THE CHANCE THIS IS CORRECT: 0%
5) The Order trailed Daniel to Jonas' house, and kidnapped Bree. They took the car, credit card and money to make it seem like she took off on her own. NEW ESTIMATE OF THE CHANCE THIS IS CORRECT: 0%
6) Jonas gave Bree his car, credit card and money, so that she could go meet her dad. They didn't tell Daniel, because he would have insisted on going, and Bree is worried that he will come to harm if the meeting with her dad is a trap by the Order. NEW ESTIMATE OF THE CHANCE THIS IS CORRECT: 10%
7) Jonas isn't working for the Order, but he is a bad guy, and he's working his own angle on all this. To get Bree out from under Daniel's protection, he had friends take Bree away in his car. Jonas will sell them both out as soon as he can figure out a safe way to do so. NEW ESTIMATE OF THE CHANCE THIS IS CORRECT: 0%
Bree is feeling badly that she got gifts but didn't give any, so she just borrowed the car (and credit card, and money) for a little trip to the mall to get Boxing Day gifts for the boys. She thought she would be right back but uh-oh, something must have happened to her. NEW ESTIMATE OF THE CHANCE THIS IS CORRECT: 10%
9) None of this will ever really be adequately explained. NEW ESTIMATE OF THE CHANCE THIS IS CORRECT: 10%
10) (thanks Langorous Lass) Jonas is with the Order, or has fallen under their sway (thanks Jeninlb). The Order has kidnapped Bree and left Jonas to render Daniel ineffective in pursuing her. MY ESTIMATE OF THE CHANCE THIS IS CORRECT: 10% (LL says 30%)
11) [New] Bree has come to believe that the Order has found out where Jonas lives, perhaps because of something Daniel said, or possibly purely by instinct on her part. She fled to take the boys out of danger. MY ESTIMATE OF THE CHANCE THIS IS CORRECT: 10%
Estimates are my own. Your mileage may vary. Void in some states.
Now here's a wacky prediction: next video posted by Gemma! Woo!